By Daniel Boustani
Consumer Electric Vehicles (EVs) have made significant market penetration in the last decade. According to Reuters, Q3 2023 saw the largest ever EV sales in the U.S., with a 7.9% market share, up nearly 50% year over year. However, other transportation industries have been slower to adopt electrification. This article identifies several non-consumer sectors likely to see growth in electric vehicle technology soon and the EV fleet charging infrastructure challenges that have delayed commercial fleet electrification.
Current and future transportation trends
Buses and trucks are the next hurdle for transportation electrification. Luckily, the booming advancements of EV technologies like battery management systems, automotive relays, automotive connectors, and more are accelerating EV adoption in these transportation segments:
Battery-Electric Buses (BEB)
Battery-electric buses (BEB), distinct from trolly-wire-powered electric buses, are becoming increasingly popular in urban environments. BEBs have seen use in public transportation networks due to their lower operating costs, reduced emissions, and ease of maintenance compared to combustion-based buses or trolleybuses.
However, their use requires charging infrastructure, so adoption may be slower in regions with less infrastructure policy incentivization. Some cities worldwide, such as Shenzhen, have already replaced their entire municipal fleet of buses thanks to massive government incentives and China's EV manufacturer, BYD.
Advances in power semiconductor technologies, such as silicon carbide MOSFETs, enable cheaper and more efficient battery assemblies. As battery technology continues to improve, so will the range of BEB buses, and the cost of these vehicles will decrease, allowing for more widespread adoption.
In-Motion Charging Buses (IMC)
A hybrid solution to BEBs and trolleybuses is in-motion charging (IMC) buses. This up-and-coming electric bus technology is found mainly in central Europe. In cities with previously installed trolley lines, IMC buses can charge on the go and deviate from the trolley lines as needed.
IMC buses have a higher overall vehicle range, lower curb weight, and utilize sophisticated battery management systems to operate in conjunction with direct power. IMC could also see market expansion as induction road-charging technologies grow in conjunction with consumer vehicle infrastructure bolstering. To learn more about battery management systems and how they enable efficient energy usage, read Arrow’s guide to battery management systems.
Low- to mid-range heavy-duty trucks
Heavy-duty trucks are gradually transitioning to electric power, especially those operating on short-range routes. While these vehicles have drastically different weight and power requirements than consumer vehicles, their adoption is advantageous given the low fleet maintenance costs and increased vehicle performance.
In low-mileage stop-start-stop applications such as delivery vehicles and trash trucks, electric vehicles may prove to be far more efficient and cost-effective than combustion-engine competitors. Especially given their high, instant torque capabilities, electric heavy-duty vehicles are likely to see widespread adoption soon.
For example, Amazon recently partnered with EV manufacturer Rivian to create 100,000 delivery vehicles by 2030 to incrementally replace their existing combustion-based fleet, all as a part of their effort to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2040. This new fleet of vehicles will boast state-of-the-art EV technology, automotive sensors, and intelligent battery management systems that will help Amazon serve its customers more efficiently and reduce costs.
EV fleet charging challenges
Transportation modes such as airplanes, large ships, and long-haul trucks are less likely to adopt EV technology in the near term for the following reasons:
Power density
Currently, batteries have too high of a power-to-weight ratio, making their adoption inefficient or impossible for flight. Planes require massive power at the lowest possible weight to achieve maximum efficiency. Even in combustion-based aviation, the heavier the aircraft, the more expensive it is to fly it.
Fuel weight is taken into drastic consideration on a per-flight basis, with airlines opting for minimal reserve fuel for each flight to maximize efficiency. Similarly, large ships require massive amounts of energy for their transportation. While storing this energy may initially seem feasible, today's batteries still weigh too much to replace fuel. For example, a standard container ship may carry around 3 million gallons of diesel fuel. A single gallon of diesel fuel contains 138,700 BTUs or 40.6 kWh, which is the same energy storage equivalent to three (3) Tesla Powerwall 3s. Three Tesla Powerwall 3's are 23,666.4 cubic inches and weigh 861 pounds, while one gallon of diesel is 231 cubic inches and weighs 7.1 pounds.
So, for a container ship to be completely electric with the same power capabilities, it must support 102x the storage space and 121x its current fuel storage weight. For comparison's sake, 9 million Tesla Powerwall 3s (equivalent to 3 million gallons of diesel) is the same volume as 30,211 shipping containers. The world's largest container ship can carry 24,000 containers and stores over 5 million gallons of fuel for its operations.
EV fleet charging infrastructure challenges
Electric vehicles require supporting infrastructure such as charging stations or docks. The development of this charging infrastructure can be costly in urban environments, cost-prohibitive in rural areas, and even technologically infeasible in maritime environments.
Of planes, ships, and long-haul trucks, the most likely to have a supporting infrastructure in the near term is long-haul trucks, as a large majority of urban environments have already started infrastructure electrification to support consumer vehicles. The larger challenge for long-haul trucks is the electrification of rural areas, which may only restrict certain trade routes that span distances out of the range of long-haul EVs.
Rural areas may have limited to zero electrical infrastructure, let alone an infrastructure robust enough to continuously charge fleets of long-haul vehicles. For long-haul trucks to be adopted, dedicated energy generation and transportation will likely need to be developed at strategic charging hubs, like how rural rest stops and petroleum stations exist to service combustion vehicles.
Commercial EV cost considerations
While some industries may soon be technically able to realize electrification, the cost may be prohibitive. Changing a fleet of vehicles from internal combustion to electric vehicles may be cost-prohibitive for any business.
For industries with limited profit margins, the upfront vehicle and infrastructure cost will likely hinder widespread adoption, even if operational cost is less in the long term. Regulatory and policy incentives may offset investment costs to accelerate widespread adoption, similar to how government tax credits accelerate the adoption of consumer vehicles in countries keen on doing so.
A surge in commercial electric vehicles
Although some sectors may be slower to adopt electrification, such as large maritime vessels, aviation, and long-range trucks, recent improvements in EV technology enable a revolution in commercial transportation. BEB and IMC buses are gaining international traction due to their lower operational costs, reduced emissions, and superior performance. Heavy-duty trucks will likely see a renaissance of electrification, exemplified by Amazon's plan to replace 100,000 combustion-based delivery vehicles with EVs within the next decade.
Challenges such as power density, infrastructure constraints, and high initial costs will slow some sectors down from electrification. Still, continued adoption of EVs will be seen in nearly every industry and sector in the coming years as battery monitoring systems, power management, and EV technology continue to advance.
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